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Life Expectancy at Birth by Ward
1999-2003

July 2006

Introduction

Life Expectancy at Birth – A Definition

Life expectancy at birth for an area for a particular time period is an estimate of the average number of years a newborn baby would survive if he or she experienced the particular area's age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout his or her life. The figure reflects mortality among those living in the area in the particular time period, rather than mortality among those born in the area. It is not therefore the number of years a baby born in the area in the time period could actually expect to live, both because the death rates of the area are likely to change in the future and because many of those born in the area will live elsewhere for at least some part of their lives.

Life expectancy at birth is also not a guide to the remaining expectation of life at any given age. For example, if female life expectancy was 80 years for a particular area, life expectancy of women aged 75 years in that area would exceed 5 years. This reflects the fact that survival from a particular age depends only on the mortality rates beyond that age, whereas survival from birth is based on mortality rates at every age.

Life expectancy at birth is one of the health targets introduced by government. The national Public Service Agreement (PSA) for improving the health of the population aims:

• To increase the life expectancy at birth in England to 78.6 years for men and to 82.5 years for women by 2010 and;
• Reduce the inequalities in life expectancy at birth by at least 10% between the lowest fifth of local authority districts and the average for England by 2010.

[Note that these targets are based on the three-year rolling averages for districts and not on the district figures given in this paper which have been calculated to be consistent with the ward estimate methodology.]

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has periodically reported on geographical differences in life expectancy at birth across the United Kingdom. The most recent analysis was for local authorities and Government Office Regions (GORs) based on three-year rolling averages from 1991-1993 to 2002-2004. Details of the results for Lancashire can be found elsewhere on the Lancashire Profile site . These studies have revealed large inequalities in life expectancy between local authorities but there were also thought to be substantial variations in mortality at small area level within most local authorities. In order to assess this, for the first time ONS have now produced life expectancy figures below the local authority level for wards. As a new data set these ward life expectancy figures are, for the time being, presented as "experimental statistics".

The Data

The figures are based on the aggregation of deaths between 1999 and 2003 and on 2001 ward population estimates. Results have been calculated for all persons in each of the wards in England and Wales. Calculations for males and females separately have also been undertaken where the sex-specific populations were large enough to produce meaningful results (population of 1,000 or more in 2001). Because of the rather small numbers of deaths in many wards, the life expectancy figures can be affected by some random variation and are thus subject to a margin of error. Consequently, ONS have calculated 95% confidence intervals for these figures. For comparisons between areas the confidence intervals allow differences which are statistically significant at the 95% level (confidence limits do not overlap) to be distinguished from those more likely to result by chance (confidence limits do overlap). Full datasets for wards throughout the whole of England and Wales can be obtained from the (External) ONS . Datasets for Lancashire wards are available from the Lancashire Profile Data Download Centre .

Lancashire Perspective

As part of the ward analysis, ONS has also provided life expectancy figures calculated on a consistent basis for local authorities for comparative purposes (Table 1). Just four of the fourteen Lancashire NUTS-2 districts have higher all-person life expectancy at birth than the average for England and Wales, namely Fylde, Ribble Valley, South Ribble and Wyre. With an average life expectancy of 78.9 years, Ribble Valley is Lancashire's top-placed district and is the only one to lie inside the top 50% of authorities in England and Wales. At the other extreme, average all-person life expectancy in Blackpool at 75.2 years is 3.7 years lower than that in Ribble Valley and 3.1 years less than the average for England and Wales. Nationally, Blackpool was ranked as third from bottom behind two other North West metropolitan districts, Manchester and Liverpool. A further seven Lancashire districts recorded rankings of over 300 (i.e. within the bottom 20%), including Blackburn and Burnley which alongside Blackpool were in the bottom 5%.

This Lancashire and district pattern is also reflected in the geographical distribution of ward-level life expectancy results which reveal a quite marked skew compared with the England and Wales average with a much higher proportion of local wards exhibiting lower than average life expectancies. This can be most readily expressed by ranking life expectancies from highest to lowest and dividing the results into fifths or quintiles. As shown in Table 2, Lancashire has only half as many wards in the fifth of wards with the highest national life expectancy – just 29 or 10%. Lancashire also has a similarly low share of its wards in the second quintile than the national average. Conversely, in the fifth quintile (representing the 20% of wards with the poorest life expectancy), Lancashire had 106 wards represented, equivalent to 35% of all its wards

The lowest ward level life expectancy figure in Lancashire was recorded for Bloomfield in Blackpool. Life expectancy in Bloomfield stood at 70.6 years, or 15.4 years less than Lancashire's highest ranking ward of Ribby-with Wrea in Fylde District which enjoyed life expectancy of 86.0 years (Table 3). There was a clear cluster of poorly ranking wards in Blackpool (and even in its more favourable wards were in the third quintile) emphasising the District's lowly position in the national league table. However, nearly all the larger Lancashire urban districts had a disproportionate share of their wards ranking in the bottom two quintiles including Blackburn, Burnley, Hyndburn and Preston (Table 4). Even districts like Lancaster, Pendle and West Lancashire which had a reasonable representation of high life expectancy wards contained individual wards where life expectancy was well into the fifth quintile ranking.

Not surprisingly, the lowest ranking wards which are usually to be found mainly in the central urban areas are usually the same as those known to perform poorly in terms of numerous measures of household income and deprivation (Figure 1). Wards with the highest life expectancy at birth are to be found in more rural or semi-rural locations and are characterised by the presence of higher socio-economic groupings and rate highly in terms of household incomes and other indicators of well-being.

Figures 2 and 3 map the distribution of ward life expectancy at birth for males and females separately (where data is available). The accompanying data for these figures may be found in the Data Download Centre .

This page was compiled by Peter Kivell .

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