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Population Projections
2006 to 2031

June 2008

Introduction

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released yearly population projections up to 2031, down to the district authority level for each area of England. The full data sets can be downloaded from the (External) ONS website . Alternatively, all the figures for the Lancashire authorities are available in our Data Download Centre .

The population projection data sets contain information on natural change (births, deaths) internal migration into and out of an area, international and cross-border migration into and out of an area, along with breakdowns by gender and a range of age-groups. This research monitor uses a selection of the statistics available for the Lancashire area to provide a broad overview of the results.

The purpose of the projections is to provide an estimate of future trends in population by age and sex for the 25-year period from 2006 to 2031. They are used as a common framework for national planning in a number of different fields. The projections are trend-based and therefore show what the population will be if recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration continue. The projections are produced on a consistent basis across all local authorities in England and do not reflect the impact of any future policy changes or local development policies on the population of an area.

Please note that care must be taken when interpreting the figures especially for local district authorities. These are less robust than the projections for the more populous geographical areas. Further information on the methodology used to derive the figures, and for the figures for other authority areas in England not detailed in this short report, can be found on the (External) ONS Subnational Population Projections page .

The research monitor archive contains previous editions of this article that detail former population projections. The noticeable differences between the present figures and previous estimates emphasise the challenges faced by trying to project population totals.

National Perspective

Table 1 details the expected population changes by region and for England. For the country as a whole, the population is projected to increase by 19.0% between 2006 and 2031 to reach 60.4 million. The highest rates of growth at the regional level are expected in the East Midlands (25.8%) and the East (24.8%), whilst the North West Region, with a growth rate of 12.3%, is projected to achieve a rate well below the national average.

The Lancashire Perspective

Table 2 includes the Lancashire figures are for the NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 levels. The former includes Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool Unitary Authorities whilst the latter excludes these two areas and just covers the 12 districts in the Lancashire County Council area. At the NUTS-3 level, a 17.0% increase is projected over the 25-year period, resulting in an expected population total of 1,364.1 million by 2031. At the NUTS-2 level, the percentage increase is projected to be slightly lower at 16.6%, with the number expected to reach 1,689.8 million. The estimated increases for the Lancashire NUTS-2 and 3 areas are higher than the prediction for the North West as a whole, but are below the projected national rate of change.

Table 2 also has the district population projections and tracks the changes over five-year periods. It contains the projected growth rates at the district level over the 25-year period, whilst Figure 2 presents the estimated growth rates between 2006 and 2031 in a more visually striking format.

Lancaster district is expected to record a population increase of almost a third, and the neighbouring Ribble Valley authority should see its population grow by over a quarter. Every district is projected to record an increase in its population, but the lowest growth rate of just 3.1% is expected to be in Burnley. Other estimated rates of increase that are less than the North West figure of 12.3% are in West Lancashire (7.1%) and Preston (12.1%).

Map showing the projected population increases over 2006 to 2031 for Lancashire's local authorities - see text for details Source Office for National Statistics

Population Pyramids

Our Data Downloads also contain interactive projected population pyramids that present useful visual breakdown of the results by gender and age-group. Examples of pyramids for the Lancashire County Council NUTS-3 area are presented in Figure 2. The results are for both 2006 and 2031 and clearly emphasise the dynamics of population changes by age and sex in the County Council area over the 25-year period.

Projected population pyramids for Lancashire County (NUTS-3) in 2006 and 2031 - see text for details Source Office for National Statistics

Projections by Age Group

Table 3, details the population projections (both genders combined) by the available age-groups for the Lancashire County Council area. The vast majority of age-groups are expected to record increases, with the only three exceptions being the 15-19 year age-group, 50-54 years and 55-59. From 60 years onwards, there are some quite dramatic increases. For example, the 85+ age-group is projected to grow by 137% to reach 56,800 by 2031. The figures present a vivid indication of the future ageing of the population, which is a subject that has received a good deal of press attention over recent years.

This page was compiled by Bryan Moulding .

All enquiries from the media should be sent to Corporate.Communications@lancashire.gov.uk .

Any other questions about the content of this page may be sent to EconInfo@lancashire.gov.uk .

For all enquiries about the county council's services , contact the Customer Service Centre on 0845 0530000 (01772 530000) or at Enquiries@css.lancscc.gov.uk .

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