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Lancashire
Monthly Unadjusted Claimant Count (Unemployment Related Benefits) Summary
November 2008


Claimant Count data no longer represent 'Official' Unemployment Figures, but simply a measure of those people who are claiming the Jobseekers Allowance unemployment-related benefit (i.e. the Claimant Count). Go to the latest 'Official' unemployment figures.


Headline Comments

Over the past year, the claimant count total in the County of Lancashire has increased by 5,162 persons, to stand at 16,904 persons – an increase of more than two fifths, +44.0%. This is a greater percentage increase to that experienced in the UK (+34.4%) and the North West of England (34.7%), which have both increased by more than a third. The Lancashire proportion of 2.4% is still, however, lower than the UK proportion of 2.8%.

Claimant count totals have increased in all 12 districts in the County and the 2 unitary authorities in the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 sub region, over the past year and the previous month. The claimant count has increased by more than 10% over the past month alone in the County and by about a seventh (14%+) in six of 14 local authorities since last month.

The percentage increase in the claimant count in East Lancashire (+51.0%, +3,096 persons) was just under one and a half times the rate of the increase experienced in the Lancashire West sub-region (+35.3%, +3,686 persons).

Rossendale district (+77.9% / +486 persons) within East Lancashire increased at more than double the rate of the increase in the UK over the year. Eleven of the 14 local authorities in the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 sub region increased by more than the UK increase of 34.4%, and six by more than 50%.

In terms of numbers, increases to the claimant count were also substantial - ranging between 440 and 569 persons in nine of the 12 County districts and between 136 and 318 persons in the remaining 3 districts over the past year. Pendle district recorded the greatest numerical yearly increase of 569 persons in the County. The increases in Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority, at 857 persons, and within Blackpool Unitary Authority, at 763 persons, were also substantial and the greatest in the sub region.


 
Males
Females
Total
Yearly Change
Monthly Change
No.
% of working age pop.
No.
% of working age pop.
No.
% of working age pop.
No.
%
No.
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Burnley
1,313
4.8
438
1.7
1,751
3.3
526
42.9
128
7.9
Chorley
1,138
3.2
324
1.1
1,462
2.2
548
60.0
157
12.0
Fylde
426
1.8
153
0.8
579
1.3
176
43.7
87
17.7
Hyndburn
1,120
4.3
290
1.2
1,410
2.9
522
58.8
152
12.1
Lancaster
1,536
3.2
488
1.1
2,024
2.2
541
36.5
197
10.8
Pendle
1,123
3.9
387
1.5
1,510
2.7
569
60.5
177
13.3
Preston
1,892
4.3
553
1.4
2,445
2.9
440
21.9
91
3.9
Ribble Valley
264
1.4
100
0.6
364
1.0
136
59.6
45
14.1
Rossendale
866
4.0
244
1.2
1,110
2.7
486
77.9
142
14.7
South Ribble
1,009
2.9
256
0.8
1,265
1.9
454
56.0
156
14.1
West Lancashire
1,410
4.2
514
1.6
1,924
2.9
446
30.2
157
8.9
Wyre
814
2.5
246
0.8
1,060
1.7
318
42.9
156
17.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Lancashire County
12,911
3.5
3,993
1.2
16,904
2.4
5,162
44.0
1,645
10.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blackburn with Darwen
2,390
5.4
631
1.5
3,021
3.5
857
39.6
276
10.1
Blackpool
2,584
5.7
787
2.0
3,371
4.0
763
29.3
523
18.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
East Lancashire (1)
7,076
4.2
2,090
1.4
9,166
2.9
3,096
51.0
920
11.2
Lancashire West (2)
10,809
3.6
3,321
1.2
14,130
2.5
3,686
35.3
1,524
12.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Lancashire NUTS-2
17,885
3.9
5,411
1.3
23,296
2.6
6,782
41.1
2,444
11.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
North West
104,937
4.7
32,699
1.6
137,636
3.2
35,462
34.7
9,998
7.8
Great Britain
756,485
3.9
265,996
1.5
1,022,481
2.8
259,135
33.9
82,581
8.8
United Kingdom
782,956
4.0
273,189
1.5
1,056,145
2.8
270,386
34.4
85,866
8.8
Source (External) Office for National Statistics via the (External) National Online Manpower Information System (NOMIS)
New Series - Revised as from December 2002
Please refer to notes for important changes to the definition of 'Unemployment'.
View Data Archives
THE LANCASHIRE FIGURE IS AN AMALGAMATION OF THE 12 LANCASHIRE DISTRICTS.
The Lancashire NUTS-2 figure covers the broader Lancashire area and includes Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool Unitary Authorities.
(1) East Lancashire includes Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority, Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle, Ribble Valley and Rossendale.
(2) Lancashire West includes Blackpool Unitary Authority, Chorley, Fylde, Lancaster, Preston, South Ribble, West Lancashire and Wyre.
NORTH WEST (GOR) - As from January 2003, the figures for the North West Government Office Region (GOR) are reported. This includes Lancashire, Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Cumbria and Blackpool, Blackburn with Darwen, Halton and Warrington Unitary Authorities. Prior to January 2003, the regional figures presented on this page were for the previous North West Standard Statistical Region, which did not include Cumbria.
GB is comprised of England, Wales and Scotland.
UK is comprised of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Comments


Expanded Headline Comments

UK Figures
As at November 2008, the unadjusted claimant count total in the UK was 1,056,145 persons, or 2.8% of the working age population. The UK total has increased by 34.4%, or 270,386 persons, more than a third greater, compared to the figure recorded a year earlier.

Context - In recent times, the UK claimant count proportion has been consistently below 3.0% since January 2001. The UK unadjusted claimant count proportion dropped to its lowest level of 2.1% in October, November and December of 2007. This was the lowest level in the backdated series of claimant count proportions available from January 1992.

Lancashire Figures
The claimant count total for the County of Lancashire stood at 16,904 persons with a claimant count proportion of 2.4%, which was lower than the UK figure of 2.8%. The claimant count proportion for the County at 2.4% is above the lowest proportion recorded for Lancashire County in October 2004 and November 2004 of 1.5%.

The claimant count total in the County has increased by 5,162 persons, or 44% - by more than two fifths - over the year. This is a higher percentage increase than the UK average of 34.4%. This indicates that the claimant count total in Lancashire has increased at a rate which is more than a quarter faster than the UK average as a whole over the past twelve months.

Context - At the end of 2004, the claimant count began to increase across the UK from the recent lows recorded in that year. The claimant count increased during 2005 and 2006, then declined again during 2007. The unadjusted claimant count has however begun to increase once again since the early summer period of 2008, and has accelerated over the previous month. Under stable conditions, the claimant count would have been expected to fall over the summer and early autumn months as seasonal work provided additional employment opportunities.

The claimant count proportions for Lancashire and the North West did not decline at the same pace as the UK average during 2006 and 2007, and may reflect some relative weakening of the North West economy, and some local economies, compared to other UK regions. The recent increases in the unadjusted claimant count proportions have also been at a greater pace in Lancashire and the North West since summer 2008.

The possible weakening of the North West economy relative to other regions and the UK average has also been reflected within the 'official' regional unemployment figures collected via the Labour Force Survey. The latest LFS figures for the quarter ending October 2008, show that unemployment in the North West of England has again outpaced that in the UK in terms of the quarterly percentage change. For most of the past two years, unemployment in the North West has increased at a faster pace than the UK as a whole, or has decreased at a slower pace than the UK, or has increased when the UK has decreased. This has resulted with the official unemployment rate in the North West at 7.2%, being 1.2% above the UK rate of 6.0% (for the three months ending October 2008).
http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/images/ofreggraph.gif
http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ofreg.asp

Lancashire Districts
Within the County, the districts of Burnley (3.3%), Hyndburn (2.9%) Preston (2.9%) and West Lancashire (2.9%) have claimant count proportions above the UK average of 2.8%. Burnley's claimant count proportion has increased from 1.6% in October 2004 (equal to the County in that month), to 3.3% in November 2008, and is now 0.9 percentage points above the County proportion of 2.4%. The proportions in Hyndburn and Rossendale districts have increased by 0.4 percentage points over the month, taking Hyndburn's claimant count proportion to 2.9%, above the UK proportion of 2.8%. All the district claimant count proportions in the County increased on the previous month.

Male and Female Unemployment in Lancashire Districts
Burnley (4.4%), Preston (4.0%), Hyndburn (3.8%) and West Lancashire (3.7%) have male claimant count proportions above the UK male proportion of 3.6%. Burnley (1.6%), West Lancashire (1.6%), and Preston (1.4%) have female claimant count proportions above, or equal to, the UK female proportion of 1.4%.

Lancashire Wards
Tanhouse ward (8.9%, 221 persons) within West Lancashire district has a claimant count proportion above 8.4%, or more than three times the UK average rate of 2.8%. This would suggest that the official unemployment rate in the ward could be in the region of 17% to 19% (see below). A further 4 wards in the County have proportions of 5.6% or above, or double the UK average rate of 2.8% and over. These are Ribbleton Ward (Preston, 7.5%, 324 persons); Digmoor Ward (West Lancs, 7.0%, 200 persons); St. Matthew's Ward (Preston, 5.7%, 232 persons; and Birch Green Ward (West Lancs, 5.6%, 154 persons.

The 'official' unemployment rate is roughly double the claimant count proportion, plus approximately 0.5% to 1.0%. Actual unemployment could therefore be estimated to be around 10% to 18.8% in some Lancashire wards (for wards with a claimant count proportion of about 5.0% and above). It is estimated that unemployment could therefore affect one in ten to almost one in five persons of working age in some wards in Lancashire.

As a point of interest, Ribbleton Ward in Preston, with a claimant count of 324 persons, is equivalent to almost 90% of the claimant count within the whole of the Ribble Valley District (364 persons). As at February 2008, Ribbleton ward also had 745 persons, or 17.2% of the working age population, claiming Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance, the largest number in the County.

The fact that unemployment is concentrated in certain areas is illustrated by the fact that just over 28% of the claimant count total in Lancashire County, some 4,754 persons, are concentrated in just 10% of the wards – in 26 of the 257 wards in the County.

Full Comments

As at October 2008, the unadjusted claimant count total in the UK was 1,056,145 persons, or 2.8% of the working age population. Within the North West, the claimant count total stood at 137,636 persons with a higher claimant count proportion of 3.2%.

The claimant count total for Lancashire County stood at 16,904 persons with a claimant count proportion of 2.4%, which was lower than the UK figure of 2.8%. For the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 Area, that includes the two unitary authorities of Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool, the claimant count total was 23,296 and the proportion, at 2.6%, was also lower than the UK proportion of 2.8%.

Figure 1 November 2008 Claimant Count Proportions (%) of the Resident Working Age Population for Lancashire County and the 12 Lancashire districts, the Lancashire NUTS-2 Area and the two Unitary Authorities of Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool, the North West, and the UK Note Resident Working Age Population=Males Aged 16-64 and Females Aged 16-59 Years of Age. Source Office for National Statistics via the National Online Man-Power Information System (NOMIS)

The Unitary Authorities of Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen have the greatest claimant count proportions within the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 Area, standing at 4.0% and 3.5%, respectively. These are both above the UK proportion.

Within the County, the districts of Burnley (3.3%), Hyndburn (2.9%) Preston (2.9%) and West Lancashire (2.9%) have claimant count proportions above the UK average of 2.8%. Burnley's claimant count proportion has increased from 1.6% in October 2004 (equal to the County in that month), to 3.3% in November 2008, and is now 0.9 percentage points above the County proportion of 2.4%. Ribble Valley (1.0%) and Fylde (1.3%) have claimant count proportions below half the UK figure.

The October 2008 claimant count summary statistics are at http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ccsum.asp .

Note: As a very rough rule of thumb, the claimant count proportion is approximately half the 'official' unemployment rate collected via the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Proportions should therefore be doubled to obtain a very rough estimate of the unemployment rate for each area. In times of low unemployment and high employment, this method of approximating unemployment may still underestimate the 'official' unemployment rate by up to 0.5% to 1.0%, or more. Blackpool UA unemployment could therefore be estimated to be about 8.0%-9.0% in November 2008. Official LFS unemployment data and model based unemployment estimates at the district/unitary level for the summer and autumn months of 2008 will, however, not be released for another 2 to 6 months, owing to the survey methodology employed. The model based unemployment estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics for the year ending December 2007 for Blackpool was 6.4%, +/- 0.6%.


The Claimant Count in Context

The claimant count measure has been low for almost a decade within the UK, falling from the previous peak during the last recession in late 1992/early 1993, to the low of 2.1% recorded between October and December 2007 at the UK level. Locally, the claimant count proportions were lower in November and December of 2004, when the proportion recorded in Lancashire County was 1.5%, and 1.7% in the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 Area. At the end of 2004/beginning of 2005, the claimant count began to increase, then declined once more during 2007. The unadjusted claimant count has however begun to rise once more since the late spring and early summer months of 2008, when normally it would be expected to fall in a stable economy. Quarterly data can be viewed in graph form via the following web page: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/images/cclsgraph.gif

There are also a number of wards within Lancashire where the proportion of those persons on the claimant count is significantly higher. These wards often feature within other indicators of deprivation. Please see the ward claimant count section in the main text below for further details.

Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance (IB&SDA) benefit recipients in February 2008 numbered 39,940 persons in Lancashire County, three times the numbers on the claimant count (Job Seekers Allowance), which stood at 13,332 persons in the County in February 2008. In recent years, roughly 1,950 persons have been transferred onto IB&SDA benefit per year from the claimant count and a further 1,450 have been transferred onto other benefits in the County. Recent IB&SDA data can be accessed via the following web page: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/monitors/incapben.asp

Other earnings, income and benefit data can be found via the following web page: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/monitors/indexincome.asp

Yearly Change in the Claimant Count

The November 2008 Claimant Count Summary reveals that totals have increased on those recorded a year earlier by 34.4% in the UK and by 34.7% within the North West region.
http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ccsum.asp

The Lancashire County claimant count total has increased by a greater percentage to that experienced in the UK and the North West of England, by 44.0% over the year, or by 5,162 persons, to stand at 16,904 persons.

Claimant count totals are greater than recorded a year earlier in all 12 districts in Lancashire County and the 2 unitary authorities in the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 sub region.

Ten of the 12 Lancashire County districts witnessed a greater yearly rate of increase in the claimant count than the 34.4% recorded in the UK. Rossendale district (+77.9% / +486 persons) within East Lancashire increased at more than double the rate of the increase in the UK.

A further four districts, three of which are also within East Lancashire, saw the claimant count proportion increase by about 60% over the year. These were Pendle (+60.5% / +569 persons), Chorley (+60.0% / 548 persons), Ribble Valley (+59.6% / + 136 persons), and Hyndburn (+58.8% / +522 persons).

South Ribble (+56.0% / +454 persons), the Fylde (+43.7% / 176 persons), Burnley (+42.9% / 526 persons), Wyre (+42.9% / +318 persons) and Lancaster (+36.5% / 541 persons) also recorded greater yearly rates of increase in the claimant count than the 34.4% in the UK.

In terms of numbers, increases to the claimant count were also substantial - ranging between 440 and 569 persons in nine of the 12 districts and between 136 and 318 persons in the remaining 3 districts over the past year. Pendle district recorded the greatest numerical yearly increase of 569 persons.

Only three local authorities in the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 sub region, all in the West of the County, increased at a lower rate than the 34.4% recorded in the UK. The two County districts of Preston (+21.9% / +440 persons) and West Lancashire (+30.2% / +446 persons) increased at a slightly lower rate, as did Blackpool Unitary Authority (+29.3% / 763 persons). The growth of the claimant count in all three of these local authorities is significant as the increases are based on already large claimant count numbers.

The percentage increase in the claimant count in East Lancashire (+51.0%, +3,096 persons) was just under one and a half times the rate of the increase experienced in the Lancashire West sub-region (+35.3%, +3,686 persons) and a similarly higher rate of increase than experienced in the UK (+34.4%).

All five of the Lancashire County districts that fall with the East Lancashire sub region increased at a greater rate than the 34.4% recorded in the UK. Rossendale district (+77.9% / +486 persons) increased at more than double the rate of the increase in the UK. Three increases were around the 60% mark in Pendle (+60.5%, 569 persons), Ribble Valley (+59.6%, 136 persons) and Hyndburn (+58.8%, 522 persons). The percentage increase in Burnley was +42.9%, or 526 persons.

The high percentage increase in Ribble Valley, which has one of the lowest claimant count proportions and one of the lowest claimant count totals within the UK, is partly explained by the relatively low base number in the previous year. The rise does however show that the economic downturn is affecting all areas. The claimant count proportion of 1.0% in Ribble Valley is just under a third of the UK proportion of 2.8%.

The sixth East Lancashire local authority, Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority (+39.6% / +857 persons), also witnessed an increase in the claimant count above that recorded in the UK of 34.4% over the past 12 months. This was the greatest numerical increase within East Lancashire and the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 sub region.

The increase in the yearly claimant count is a measure of the downturn within the local and general economy.

It is to be noted that in November of the previous year, 2007, the claimant count had shown a fall on the November 2006 figure a year earlier by -9.6% at the County level, a sign that the local economy was improving at that time. Nationally, the claimant count had fallen by -14.8% between November 2006 and November 2007, again a sign that the national economy was improving over that period. The difference between the local and national economy in November 2007 may have occurred because the local economy was not performing as well as the national economy at that time.

Monthly Change in the Claimant Count

Nationally, the unadjusted claimant count in November 2008 showed an increase of +8.8%, or +85,866 persons, on that recorded a month earlier. Lancashire County recorded a slightly greater percentage increase in the claimant count on the previous month, +10.8% (+1,645 persons), to that recorded in the UK. Normally, within a stable economy, the unadjusted claimant count would be expected to fall in November as seasonal and tourism jobs continue to reduce the claimant count.

All twelve Lancashire County districts recorded an increase in the claimant count on the previous month. Ten of the 12 increases were above the UK monthly rise of 8.8%. Only the increases in Burnley (+7.9%, +128 persons) and Preston (+3.9%, 91 persons) were below the UK monthly change and both were still relatively large in terms of numbers as they already had large claimant count base numbers in the previous month.

The Fylde district recorded the greatest monthly percentage increase, at +17.7%, +87 persons, just more than double the UK monthly increase of 8.8%. Wyre district was just below this percentage increase at +17.3%, or +156 persons.

Lancaster (+197 persons) and Pendle (+ 177 persons) added the greatest numbers numerically to the claimant count within the County on the previous month. Nine of the 12 increases ranged between 128 and 197 persons. Ribble Valley recorded the lowest numerical increase of +45 persons, however this represented and percentage change of +14.1%. This is a similar situation to that experienced in the Fylde (and Wyre to some degree) above, where large percentage increases are based on relatively low base numbers. These increases show that the increase in the claimant count is being experienced across all districts.

Blackpool Unitary Authority recorded the greatest percentage increase in the claimant count within the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 area of +18.4%, or +523 persons. Normally, the claimant count tends to increase in November each year as the extended tourism work in Blackpool comes to an end. However, this November's increase in larger in magnitude than usually experienced. Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority recorded a monthly increase of +10.8%, or +276 persons. The broader

Lancashire NUTS-2 area, which includes the two unitary authorities, recorded a monthly increase of +11.7%, or +2,444 persons, which was above the rate of increase to that experienced in the UK.

Assessment of the claimant count in future months will provide a clearer picture of any change to the current general upward trend in the claimant count and how the credit crunch and the economic downturn is affecting the wider economy.


Interpretation of Unadjusted Claimant Count Statistics

It is advisable to always look at the percentage yearly change to the unadjusted claimant count as the monthly data has a tendency to decrease over the spring, summer and autumn months as a result of seasonal work providing temporary employment (hence seasonally unadjusted figures). The monthly data can be a little misleading if read in isolation - see below for an explanation of how the claimant count tends to fluctuate over the year. Monthly data can also be erratic because of local or temporary factors, such as a major employer opening, closing, or changing employment levels.

Lancashire County Council Corporate Research and Intelligence Team publish unadjusted claimant count totals (as opposed to seasonally adjusted figures). This allows analysis down to ward level on a consistent basis with UK and regional statistics as seasonally adjusted figures are not available at the ward level.

Claimant Count Statistics v Official Unemployment Estimates via the Labour Force Survey

Claimant count data no longer represent 'official' unemployment figures but simply a measure of those people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits (Job Seekers Allowance).

As a very rough rule of thumb, the 'official' unemployment rate collected via the Labour Force Survey (LFS) is roughly double the claimant count proportion, plus approximately 0.5% to 1.0%. Actual unemployment could therefore be estimated to be around 10% to 19% in some Lancashire wards (for wards with a claimant count proportion of about 5.0% and above) – Unemployment in some wards could therefore affect one in ten to almost one in five persons of working age in some neighbourhoods.

'Official' unemployment data at the County level has quite large confidence intervals (i.e. rates are quoted within a range of possible rates - for example 5.2% +/- 1.0). 'Official' unemployment figures that have been downloaded by the Corporate Research and Intelligence Team can be accessed via: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ofreg.asp

Owing to the survey methodology used to collect 'official' LFS unemployment statistics, ward level data is not available owing to small, insufficient sample sizes. District level data are also rarely available, or too imprecise at the district level for the same reason. To overcome the shortfall of district level unemployment data, the Office for National Statistics has developed Model Based Estimates of Unemployment at the Local and Unitary Authority level. The new estimates are now accredited as National Statistics and Lancashire data can be accessed via the following link: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ofmodel.asp

Ward Claimant Counts in the Districts

There are 5 wards within Lancashire County that have claimant count proportions above or equal to 5.6%, or double the UK average rate of 2.8%.

Tanhouse ward (8.9%, 221 persons) within West Lancashire district has a claimant count proportion above 8.4%, or more than three times the UK average rate of 2.8%. This would suggest that the official unemployment rate in the ward could be in the region of 17% to 19%. The proportion for Tanhouse ward is the greatest in the County of Lancashire.

A further 4 wards in the County have proportions of 5.6% or above, or double the UK average rate of 2.8% and over. These are Ribbleton Ward (Preston, 7.5%, 324 persons); Digmoor Ward (West Lancs, 7.0%, 200 persons); St. Matthew's Ward (Preston, 5.7%, 232 persons; and Birch Green Ward (West Lancs, 5.6%, 154 persons).

The four Blackpool Unitary Authority wards of Bloomfield (9.8%, 466 persons), Claremont (9.0%, 423 persons), Talbot (6.4%, 293 persons) and Brunswick (5.9%, 261 persons) also have high proportions. The proportions are likely to increase over the winter months as the tourism and seasonal work in Blackpool decline from November onwards.

Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority has two wards, Shadworth with Whitebirk (6.8%, 306 persons) and Wensley Fold (6.2%, 232 persons) with similarly high claimant count proportions of double the UK average rate of 2.8% and over.

As mentioned previously, the 'official' unemployment rate is roughly double the claimant count proportion, plus approximately 0.5% to 1.0%. Actual unemployment could therefore be estimated to be around 10% to 21% in some of the broader Lancashire NUTS2 Area wards (for wards with a claimant count proportion of about 5.0% and above) - Unemployment in some wards could therefore affect one in ten, to around one in five persons of working age.

As a point of interest, Ribbleton Ward in Preston, with a claimant count of 324 persons, is equivalent to just under 90% of the claimant count within the whole of the Ribble Valley District (364 persons). As at February 2008, Ribbleton ward also had 745 persons, or 17.2% of the working age population, claiming Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance, the largest number in the County.

The fact that unemployment is concentrated in certain areas is illustrated by the fact that just over 28% of the claimant count total in Lancashire County, some 4,754 persons, are concentrated in just 10% of the wards – in 26 of the 257 wards in the County.

The ranked proportions for the previous quarter , October 2008, can be found via the following web link: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ccrank.asp#proportions

Male and Female Claimant Count Analysis

Male claimant count numbers and proportions are usually higher than for females.

At the UK level, the proportion of working age men (16 to 64 years of age) on the claimant count was 4.0% and the proportion of working age females (16 to 59 years of age) was 1.5%. http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/ccsum.asp

Both the male and female claimant count proportions for Lancashire County, at 3.5% and 1.2%, respectively, were lower than the national levels.

At the district level, however, Burnley (4.8%), Hyndburn (4.3%) and Preston (4.3%), West Lancashire (4.2%) and Rossendale (4.0%) have male claimant count proportions above, or equal to, the UK male proportion of 4.0%. Burnley (1.7%), West Lancashire (1.6%) and Pendle (1.5%) have female claimant count proportions above, or equal to, the UK female proportion of 1.5%.

Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authorities have male claimant count proportions above the UK male level of 4.0%, at 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, and female claimant count proportions above the UK female level of 1.5%, at 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

East Lancashire has a male claimant count proportion of 4.2%, above the UK male proportion of 4.0%. The male claimant count proportion in the Lancashire West sub region at 3.6%, is however, lower than the UK male rate of 4.0%.

The female claimant count proportions in both the East Lancashire and the Lancashire West sub regions at 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively, are below the UK female proportion of 1.5%.


How the Claimant Count Fluctuates Over the Year

In a stable economy, the Lancashire claimant count would generally tend to peak in January / February, then decline over the March / November period as seasonal or temporary work becomes available. The tourism season in Blackpool and its travel to work area is extended owing to the illuminations. Hotels, retail and retail related businesses (such as mail order companies) and the Royal Mail also tend to take on temporary employees in the autumn / December period to deal with the run up to Christmas and New Year period. Despite the pre-Christmas related employment, the claimant count has shown a tendency to increase in Lancashire from December to February as the summer / tourism / seasonal work comes to an end. The overall result produces a "saw tooth" image when plotted on a graph. This trend is especially noticeable in Blackpool Unitary Authority, owing to the large element of tourism related seasonal work in the resort. The following webpage refers: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/images/ccbpgraph.gif

The trend is much less marked in the neighbouring local authority of the Fylde: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/unemployment/images/ccfygraph.gif

As a rule of thumb, if the claimant count total shows an increase on the previous year over the spring, summer and autumn months, this is normally a sign of a weak or weakening economy, (even though the monthly total may have fallen). Increases to the claimant count would also tend to be greater during December, January and February in a weakening economy. A strengthening economy will tend to show lower totals than the previous year over the March to November period. In times of rapid downturn or upturn seasonal trends may disappear altogether. In addition to the changes in demand for labour from employers, there are reasons why the supply of labour may change. These include population changes, outward/inward migration, changes to the number of school leavers, inappropriate/changing skill levels, unattractive jobs, insufficient remuneration etc.

Source The Claimant Count statistics are sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) via the National On-line Manpower Information System (NOMIS).

This page was compiled by Ann Weaver and Paul Ayre .

All enquiries from the media should be sent to Corporate.Communications@lancashire.gov.uk .

Any other questions about the content of this page may be sent to EconInfo@lancashire.gov.uk .

For all enquiries about the county council's services , contact the Customer Service Centre on 0845 0530000 (01772 530000) or at Enquiries@css.lancscc.gov.uk .

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